The Signal and the Noise Book Reviews

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Great read and very helpful. Thanks to Nate, I have a much better understanding about the essential elements in forecasting. I appreciate the message of not getting stuck in model land and trying out our predictions in the real world to make them better.

Outstanding synthesis of signal vs noise in data, heuristics & biases & applying Bayes Theorem. I was fascinated with Silver’s approach as I have been using a similar one in examining risk assessment & forecast uncertainty since the mid 1990s. However, he has taken it the extra step of using a very practical quantitative approach to improving assessments—as new data comes to light consider how to properly weight it within the current body of knowledge you possess. I highly recommend this text to anyone seeking to improve their approach to properly analyze any situation characterized by imperfect knowledge. Each example he uses to demonstrate signal vs. noise provides additional insight to the reader.

Footnotes. This electronic version has asterisks in the text that, when touched, go to a blank page. But the numbered footnotes seem to work. Doesn't anyone check this sort of thing before the book is released?

Fix the footnotes. I’m having the same problem with the footnotes as 1bayguy. The starred notes actually are on the “blank” page, but they’re initially covered by the exit menu and the font is microscopic.

Great book one chapter too long. I enjoyed reading this book. It was entertaining and informative. I am surely biased and most of this book was confirming sentiments and feelings I already had. However, the clarity, depth and detail seemed to flounder in the chapter on terrorism and could have been dropped or more fully fleshed out. Though this may simply be a reflection of the current state of terrorism forecasting. Great read I would suggest to anyone.

'The Signal and the Noise...in 30 minutes'. Nate Silver's 'The Signal and the Noise' is an ambivalent approach to evaluating predictions in a variety of fields. For those pressed for time, the 30 minute expert summary helps to quickly grasp the fundamentals outlined in the bestselling book. The engaging manual forays into the reasons behind failed predictions and how the predictions can be improved by correcting inherent biases. We learn why statistical wizardry about the US housing bubble and US financial crisis failed. Using the example of target practice, the author explains the difference between confidence, precision and accuracy. In 'The Signal and the Noise' the statistician reinforces the importance of acknowledging uncertainty and subjective viewpoint while making predictions. Summary of the book has all the important information about forecasts in different areas ranging from economy to earthquakes, from weather to poker and health to stock market. Examining the world of predictions, Silver notes that predictions need not only science but a better understanding of probability and uncertainty as well. The author asserts that not knowing the unknown can hurt and the biggest failure regarding a difficult prediction is “no prediction at all.” Silver's insights into the paradox of prediction are an interesting read.

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