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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variations in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular pattern but do have some semblance of cycles. The occurrence of ENSO is not predictable. It affects the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics, and has links (teleconnections) to higher-latitude regions of the world. The warming phase of the sea surface temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric component, which is coupled with the sea temperature change. El Niño is associated with higher than normal air sea level pressure over Indonesia, Australia and across the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic. La Niña has roughly the reverse pattern: high pressure over the central and eastern Pacific and lower pressure through much of the rest of the tropics and subtropics. The two phenomena last a year or so each and typically occur every two to seven years with varying intensity, with neutral periods of lower intensity interspersed. El Niño events can be more intense but La Niña events may repeat and last longer. A key mechanism of ENSO is the Bjerknes feedback (named after Jacob Bjerknes in 1969) in which the atmospheric changes alter the sea temperatures that in turn alter the atmospheric winds in a positive feedback. Weaker easterly trade winds result in a surge of warm surface waters to the east and reduced ocean upwelling on the equator. In turn, this leads to warmer sea surface temperatures (called El Niño), a weaker Walker circulation (an east-west overturning circulation in the atmosphere) and even weaker trade winds. Ultimately the warm waters in the western tropical Pacific are depleted enough so that conditions return to normal. The exact mechanisms that cause the oscillation are unclear and are being studied. Each country that monitors the ENSO has a different threshold for what constitutes an El Niño or La Niña event, which is tailored to their specific interests. El Niño and La Niña affect the global climate and disrupt normal weather patterns, which as a result can lead to intense storms in some places and droughts in others. El Niño events cause short-term (approximately 1 year in length) spikes in global average surface temperature while La Niña events cause short term surface cooling. Therefore, the relative frequency of El Niño compared to La Niña events can affect global temperature trends on timescales of around ten years. The countries most affected by ENSO are developing countries that are bordering the Pacific Ocean and are dependent on agriculture and fishing. In climate change science, ENSO is known as one of the internal climate variability phenomena.: 23  Future trends in ENSO due to climate change are uncertain, although climate change exacerbates the effects of droughts and floods. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report summarized the scientific knowledge in 2021 for the future of ENSO as follows: "In the long term, it is very likely that the precipitation variance related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation will increase".: 113  The scientific consensus is also that "it is very likely that rainfall variability related to changes in the strength and spatial extent of ENSO teleconnections will lead to significant changes at regional scale".: 114  Definition and terminology The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a single climate phenomenon that periodically fluctuates between three phases: Neutral, La Niña or El Niño. La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases in the oscillation which are deemed to occur when specific ocean and atmospheric conditions are reached or exceeded. An early recorded mention of the term "El Niño" ("The Boy" in Spanish) to refer to climate occurred in 1892, when Captain Camilo Carrillo told the geographical society congress in Lima that Peruvian sailors named the warm south-flowing current "El Niño" because it was most noticeable around Christmas. Although pre-Columbian societies were certainly aware of the phenomenon, the indigenous names for it have been lost to history. The capitalized term El Niño refers to the Christ child, Jesus, because periodic warming in the Pacific near South America is usually noticed around Christmas. Originally, the term El Niño applied to an annual weak warm ocean current that ran southwards along the coast of Peru and Ecuador at about Christmas time. However, over time the term has evolved and now refers to the warm and negative phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The original phrase, El Niño de Navidad, arose centuries ago, when Peruvian fishermen named the weather phenomenon after the newborn Christ. La Niña ("The Girl" in Spanish) is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader ENSO climate pattern. In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño and El Viejo, meaning "the old man." A negative phase exists when atmospheric pressure over Indonesia and the west Pacific is abnormally high and pressure over the east Pacific is abnormally low, during El Niño episodes, and a positive phase is when the opposite occurs during La Niña episodes, and pressure over Indonesia is low and over the west Pacific is high. Fundamentals On average, the temperature of the ocean surface in the tropical East Pacific is roughly 8–10 °C (14–18 °F) cooler than in the tropical West Pacific. The sea surface temperature (SST) of the West Pacific northeast of Australia averages around 28–30 °C (82–86 °F). SSTs in the East Pacific off the western coast of South America are closer to 20 °C (68 °F). Strong trade winds near the equator push water away from the East Pacific and towards the West Pacific. This water is slowly warmed by the Sun as it moves west along the equator. The ocean surface near Indonesia is typically around 0.5 m (1.5 ft) higher than near Peru because of the buildup of water in the West Pacific. The thermocline, or the transitional zone between the warmer waters near the ocean surface and the cooler waters of the deep ocean, is pushed downwards in the West Pacific due to this water accumulation. Consequently, the thermocline is tilted across the tropical Pacific, rising from an average depth of about 140 m (450 ft) in the West Pacific to a depth of about 30 m (90 ft) in the East Pacific. Cooler deep ocean water takes the place of the outgoing surface waters in the East Pacific, rising to the ocean surface in a process called upwelling. This process cools the East Pacific because the thermocline is closer to the ocean surface, leaving relatively little separation between the deeper cold water and the ocean surface. Additionally, the northward-flowing Humboldt Current carries colder water from the Southern Ocean to the tropics in the East Pacific. The combination of the Humboldt Current and upwelling maintains an area of cooler ocean waters off the coast of Peru. The West Pacific lacks a cold ocean curr.... Discover the James Nino popular books. Find the top 100 most popular James Nino books.