Michael Blastland David Spiegelhalter Popular Books
Michael Blastland David Spiegelhalter Biography & Facts
A micromort (from micro- and mortality) is a unit of risk defined as a one-in-a-million chance of death. Micromorts can be used to measure the riskiness of various day-to-day activities. A microprobability is a one-in-a million chance of some event; thus, a micromort is the microprobability of death. The micromort concept was introduced by Ronald A. Howard who pioneered the modern practice of decision analysis. Micromorts for future activities can only be rough assessments, as specific circumstances will always have an impact. However, past historical rates of events can be used to provide a rough estimate. Sample values Baseline Leisure and sport Travel Activities that increase the death risk by roughly one micromort, and their associated cause of death: Travelling 6 miles (9.7 km) by motorcycle (collision) Travelling 17 miles (27 km) by walking (collision) Travelling 10 miles (16 km) or 20 miles (32 km) by bicycle (collision) Travelling 230 miles (370 km) by car (collision) (or 250 miles) Travelling 1,000 miles (1,600 km) by jet airplane (collision) Travelling 6,000 miles (9,656 km) by train (collision) Other Increase in death risk for other activities on a per-event basis: Hang gliding – 8 micromorts per flight Ecstasy (MDMA) – 0.5 micromorts per tablet, rising to 13 if using other drugs Giving birth (vaginal) – 120 micromorts Giving birth (caesarean) – 170 micromorts AstraZeneca vaccination against COVID-19 – 2.9 micromorts COVID-19 infection at age 10 – 20 micromorts COVID-19 infection at age 25 – 100 micromorts COVID-19 infection at age 55 – 4,000 micromorts COVID-19 infection at age 65 – 14,000 micromorts COVID-19 infection at age 75 – 46,000 micromorts COVID-19 infection at age 85 – 150,000 micromorts (As of December 2020) Value of a micromort Willingness to pay An application of micromorts is measuring the value that humans place on risk. For example, a person can consider the amount of money they would be willing to pay to avoid a one-in-a-million chance of death (or conversely, the amount of money they would receive to accept a one-in-a-million chance of death). When offered this situation, people claim a high number. However, when looking at their day-to-day actions (e.g., how much they are willing to pay for safety features on cars), a typical value for a micromort is around $50 (in 2009). This is not to say the $50 valuation should be taken to mean that a human life (1 million micromorts) is valued at $50,000,000. Rather, people are less inclined to spend money after a certain point to increase their safety. This means that analyzing risk using the micromort is more useful when using small risks, not necessarily large ones. Value of a statistical life Government agencies use a nominal Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) – or Value for Preventing a Fatality (VPF) – to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of expenditure on safeguards. For example, in the UK, the VSL is £1 million GBP in 1997 value (equivalent to £2 million in 2023). Since road improvements have the effect of lowering the risk of large numbers of people by a small amount, the UK Department for Transport essentially prices a reduction of 1 micromort at £1.60. The US Department of Transportation uses a VSL of US$6.2 million, pricing a micromort at US$6.20. Chronic risks Micromorts are best used to measure the size of acute risks, i.e. immediate deaths. Risks from lifestyle, exposure to air pollution, and so on are chronic risks, in that they do not kill straight away, but reduce life expectancy. Ron Howard included such risks in his original 1979 work, for example, an additional one micromort from: Drinking 0.5 liter of wine (cirrhosis of the liver) Smoking 1.4 cigarettes (cancer, heart disease) Spending 1 hour in a coal mine (black lung disease) Spending 3 hours in a coal mine (accident) Living 2 days in New York or Boston in 1979 (air pollution) Living 2 months with a smoker (cancer, heart disease) Drinking Miami water for 1 year (cancer from chloroform) Eating 100 charcoal-broiled steaks (cancer from benzopyrene) Traveling 6000 miles (10,000 km) by jet (cancer due to increased background radiation) Such risks are better expressed using the related concept of a microlife. See also Notes References Further reading Ronald A. Howard (1984). "On Fates Comparable to Death". Management Science. 30 (4): 407–422. doi:10.1287/mnsc.30.4.407. Center for the Study & Improvement of Regulation. "What is a MicroMort?". Archived from the original on 15 April 2013. External links Micromorts - We are all going to die. Discover the Michael Blastland David Spiegelhalter popular books. Find the top 100 most popular Michael Blastland David Spiegelhalter books.
Best Seller Michael Blastland David Spiegelhalter Books of 2024
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His Girl Next Door
Khardine GrayFrom USA Today Bestselling author Khardine Gray comes a sizzling hot single dad romance you won't want to miss. No strings attached fun with the ubergorgeous single d...
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The Target
Lexy TimmsWhen you seek revenge be sure to dig two graves… Revenge was the only thing I had going for me. It kept me awake at night and drove me into desperate situations in dive bars across...
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Awaken Me
Jenna JacobHe was more than a ghost haunting my dreams…he was real. By day, I’m Julianna Garrett …a prim, proper accountant. By night, I’m tormented by dreams of an alpha, ambereyed Adonis wh...
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Dream Psychology
Sigmund FreudAn Apple Books Classic edition. Written by the founding father of psychoanalysis, Sigmund Freud’s 1899 book is the definitive text on learning to interpret dreams. Freud’s groundbr...
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A Bookshop to Die For
M.P. BlackDitching her fiancé at the altar, Alice Hartford bolts to her childhood hometown to reconnect with the last, happy remnant of her past: her mom's old bookstore. But the bookst...
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Teased by Fire
Molly O'HareFrom USA Today bestselling author Molly O’Hare comes an enemiestolovers, older brother’s best friend, romantic comedy with a curvy, antisocial, supernaturalobsessed, allyearround h...
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The Icing on the Cake
Linda SeedShe’s a baker without a kitchen. He’s got a double oven to spare. It’s a recipe for success, until his mother starts stirring up trouble … Cassie Jordan has a sweet dream to open a...
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Hot Off the Press
Lexy Timms"This is what really happened… reported by a free press, for a free people…" Wes Shaw leads a secret double life. As the secret owner of a billion dollar newspap...
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Hard Love
Peyton BanksHe was football royalty. Legendary quarterback. A champion.  Reiner Strickland had led his team to three national championships and playing a knight in shining armor was a...
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Nothing to Hide
Scarlett FinnPrize of a lifetime: travel the world with a celebrity billionaire. Come to LA with us, Roxie… It will be so much fun! We have tickets for a latenight talk show! What could possibl...
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Pride and Prejudice
Jane AustenAn Apple Books Classic edition. Jane Austen’s beloved classic opens with this witty and very memorable line: “It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a single man in possessio...
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Teach Me
Cassandra DeanFrom awardwinning author Cassandra Dean comes a tale where lessons of pleasure between a curious, sunshine widow and a dissolute, grumpy earl leads to passion and allconsuming love...
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Enemies With Benefits
Roxie NoirI don’t love him. I don’t even like him. I just want him. Eli Loveless was my nemesis from the first day of kindergarten until we graduated high school. Everything I did, he had to...
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Inception of Gold
Lexy TimmsThings are not as bad as they seem. They are worse. Being the personal assistant to a narcissistic actress who just happens to own the key to my family's undoing isn't ex...
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The Great Gatsby
F. Scott FitzgeraldAn Apple Books Classics edition. The Roaring Twenties are in full effect in F. Scott Fitzgerald’s riveting classic. Manabouttown Jay Gatsby seems to have it all, including loads of...
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His Own Heaven
Jennie KewWinner of the 2021 Passionate Plume Award for BDSM Romance Finalist in the 2021 Stiletto Contest for Contemporary Romance He taught her to trust, she taught him to love. Lucy Bar...
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Escape, A New Life
David J AntocciTo save herself, she had to lose everything. Trapped in a tropical paradise with no memory of how she got there, Abby is thrust into a fight for her life. Hunted by a madman, and c...
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Once Upon A One-Night Stand
Zoey LockeAt first sight, there was electrifying chemistry.  So why not go for it? After all, Lynx Grove, the city's most eligible bachelor, wants to claim her, at least for th...
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Meditations
Emperor of Rome Marcus AureliusMeditations is a series of personal writings by Marcus Aurelius, Roman Emperor 161–180 CE, setting forth his ideas on Stoic philosophy.
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The Odyssey
HomerAn Apple Books Classic edition. Homer’s eighthcentury epic poem is a companion to The Iliad . It tells the story of Odysseus, who journeys by ship for 10 years after the Trojan War...
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Wuthering Heights
Emily BrontëAn Apple Books Classic edition. If you’ve only ever seen Wuthering Heights on screen, you may have an image of Catherine and Heathcliff as the ultimate starcrossed lovers. But that...
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A Christmas Carol
Charles DickensAn Apple Books Classic edition. It’s Christmas Eve in Victorian England. While some families don’t know where their next meal will come from, Ebenezer Scrooge sits in his large hom...
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Finding Cinderella
Colleen Hoover#1 New York Times bestselling author of It Starts with Us and It Ends With Us writes a free novella about the search for happily ever after. A chance encounter in the dark leads ei...
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The Scarlet Letter
Nathaniel HawthorneAn Apple Books Classic edition. Hester Prynne lives in infamy. After committing adultery and bearing a child with a man whose name she refuses to divulge, the heroine of Nathaniel ...
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Good Guy
Kate MeaderHe's a Special Forces veteran making his pro hockey debut. She's a dogged sports reporter determined to get a scoop. She's also his best friend's widow . . . Fa...
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Dracula
Bram StokerAn Apple Books Classic edition. Few characters have seized readers’ imaginations quite like Count Dracula of Transylvania, the hero of Bram Stoker’s classic. The 1897 novel put vam...
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Law of Attraction
Jordan HollisHow to Finally Overcome the Hurdles of Manifesting Proven, effective and enjoyable ways to help you manifest faster… Right now, think of something that makes you successful. If you...
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Silver Santa
Lacey SilksTrapped together on Christmas, their unintended onenight stand becomes a lifechanging encounter amidst the snow. Laura Young's professional role as a security guard at the Sil...
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The Honeymoon Homicide
J. R. Mathis & Susan MathisEnjoy this SmallTown Murder Mystery Featuring A Unique Sleuthing Couple I'm Father Tom Greer, a Catholic Priest in a smalltown parish who never expected this . . . When I came...
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The Four Loves
C. S. LewisThe Four Loves summarizes four kinds of human loveaffection, friendship, erotic love, and the love of God. Masterful without being magisterial, this book's wise, gentle, candi...
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Masters of Restraint
Ines JohnsonMy new boss is good at giving orders. But his latest demand is NSFW. Especially when his two business partners want in on our deal. My new boss My boss’s boss Their investor &#...
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Silenced Girls
Roger Stelljes“ Wow wow wow!  Grips you in a choke hold and  does not let go … Oozes suspense and  bonechilling twists and turns .  Astonishing … One of those...
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How to Choose a Guy in 10 Days
Lila MonroeThe only thing more hilarious than the movies is… real life?! Fall in love with the sizzling grumpysunshine romantic comedy perfect for fans of Sophie Kinsella and Ali Hazlewood! ...
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Peace on Earth
Maia RossCrime never takes a holiday. Why should Irma? Irma Abercrombie is an energetic retiree with a shadowy past, a mean right hook, and a profound love of Christmas. Surrounded by seaso...
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Holy Bible
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day SaintsThe 2013 edition of the Holy Bible contains all of the study aids contained in the 1979 edition and includes revisions to the study aids, several new photos, updated maps, and adju...
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Bewitching a Highlander
Roma CordonDefying all for the love of a bewitching lass. Breena MacRae, a healer from Skye with a touch of witchery in her blood, embarks on a dangerous search for her missing father. She ar...
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Think and Grow Rich
Greg Habstritt & Napoleon HillThink and Grow Rich is one of the most popular success book of alltime, having sold more than 60 million copies since it was first published more than 70...
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Coffee Girl
Sophie SinclairMackenzie "Kiki" Forbes finds herself in a pickle. Either become her snarky sister's nanny, or move halfway across the country to work as assistanttothestylist of a ...
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A Green Kind of Witch
Sierra CrossCinderella crossed with Mean Girls.   That's what Hazel's daily existence feels like. Born to a family of elegant yet shallow Beige Witches, seventeen y...
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The Art of War
Sun TzuAn Apple Books Classic edition. It’s believed that Sun Tzu wrote this Chinese military primer during the 5th century BChundreds of years before the Bible. The book’s 13 chapters ex...
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Little Women
Louisa May AlcottAn Apple Books Classic edition. Meet the Marches! Louisa May Alcott’s classic introduces us to four unforgettable sisters: beautiful Meg, tomboyish Jo, delicate Beth, and Amy, the ...
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The Wonderful Wizard of Oz
L. Frank BaumAn Apple Books Classic edition. You’ve seen the iconic 1939 movie, but do you know about the talking field mice, the Winkies, and the Witch of the North that appear in the original...
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School of Potential
W.J. MayUSA Today Bestselling author, W.J. May brings you a continuation of the international bestselling series, The Chronicles of Kerrigan! Come back and enjoy the famous characters, or ...
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The Three Little Pigs
Mark LeskyClassic fairy tales, legends and folk stories in short version without violence retold with lovely illustrations in simple language. Perfect for reading aloud to small chi...
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The Cupcake Cottage
Jean OramNHL player Maverick Blades could fall in love with anyone... But he had to fall for a woman who falls under the Bro Code as untouchablehis best friend’s beautiful ex, DaisyMae Ray....
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Noxious
Lexy TimmsStop setting yourself on fire to keep someone else warm. Brady and Levi have been together since high school, since before he became famous and started thinking only about himself....
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Become A Better Version of Yourself
Ben LeightonThis ebook contains golden nuggets on how to motivate, inspire and improve your current situation. It encompasses the holistic view of self improvement from mental& emotion...
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Pretty Little Lies
Ivy ThornFour years ago, Nicolo Marchetti took my innocence. But he left me with something else Nicolo almost took everything from me. My virginity, my reputation, and very nearly my future...
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The Next Girl
Carla KovachIF YOU ONLY READ ONE BOOK THIS YEAR, MAKE IT THE NEXT GIRL... You thought he’d come to save you. You were wrong. ‘ Absolutely the best thriller I’ve read this year! ’ Goodreads Rev...
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Whiskey Girl
Melissa BelleThey'll do anything for each other…except commit. Logan Wild isn’t just the hottest broncriding cowboy in Texas. He’s also my best friendwith benefits. And that’s all we’ll ev...