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The Russian financial crisis (also called the ruble crisis or the Russian flu) began in Russia on 17 August 1998. It resulted in the Russian government and the Russian Central Bank devaluing the ruble and defaulting on its debt. The crisis had severe impacts on the economies of many neighboring countries. Background and course of events The Russian economy had set up a path for improvement after the Soviet Union had split into different countries. Russia was supposed to provide assistance to the former Soviet states and, as a result, imported heavily from them. In Russia, foreign loans financed domestic investments. When it was unable to pay back those foreign borrowings, the ruble devalued. In mid-1997, Russia had finally found a way out of inflation. The economic supervisors were happy about inflation coming to a standstill. Then the crisis hit, and supervisors had to implement a new policy. Both Russia and the countries that exported to it experienced fiscal deficits. The countries that exported to it used their resources for production but did not get paid for all their production. In essence, their national income could not cover their national expenses (for Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan). Russia’s unemployment rate was not sharply impacted since it was only 13 percent. The employment policy in Kazakhstan was checked on November 9, 1998, to give freely chosen employment. The employment in Tajikistan has not improved much since the 1990s, so exactly how the crisis affected employment in 1998 remains a question. The GDP per capita was one of the lowest after 1996 for Tajikistan. Russia's vast amount of mineral and natural resources allowed it to export those, pay back its debt, and then increase foreign reserves to revalue its currency. Reasons for the crisis The crisis happened because Russia was not able to pay back its debt. Since Russia had to provide assistance to other countries it had parted from after the dissolution of the USSR, it did so by importing heavily from those countries. It continued to import without any check on whether it had enough revenues to pay for them. In 1995, the IMF tried to help Russia stabilize by making an emergency loan, but it was unsuccessful. Organization of thought for the crisis and organizational structure of Russia There are two major schools of thought that have explanatory value for the crisis: Keynesian and free market economics. In Keynesian economics, the government intervenes fiscally to boost aggregate demand. Russia was closer to Keynesian economics than free trade since it was the government that handled the majority of trade. In 1999, the organization structure was about to change with presidential election coming up. Declining productivity, a high fixed exchange rate between the ruble and foreign currencies to avoid public turmoil, fatal financial imprudence, and a chronic fiscal deficit led to the crisis. The economic cost of the first war in Chechnya took a significant toll on the Russian economy. In early 1995, it was estimated that the war was costing Russia close to $30 million per day. Following the cessation of hostilities in 1996, it was estimated that the war in Chechnya cost Russia $5.5 billion, causing budget deficits close to 10% of their GDP. In the first half of 1997, the Russian economy showed some signs of improvement. However, soon after this, the problems began to gradually intensify. Two external shocks, the Asian financial crisis that had begun in 1997 and the following declines in demand for (and thus price of) crude oil and nonferrous metals, severely impacted Russian foreign exchange reserves. A political crisis came to a head in March when Russian president Boris Yeltsin suddenly dismissed Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin and his entire cabinet on 23 March 1998. Yeltsin named Energy Minister Sergei Kiriyenko, then 35 years old, as acting prime minister. On 29 May 1998, Yeltsin appointed Boris Fyodorov as Head of the State Tax Service. In an effort to prop up the currency and stem the capital flight, in June, Kiriyenko hiked GKO interest rates to 150%. A $22.6 billion International Monetary Fund and World Bank financial package was approved on 13 July 1998 to support reforms and stabilize the Russian market by swapping out an enormous volume of the quickly maturing GKO short-term bills into long-term Eurobonds. The Russian government decided to keep the exchange rate of the ruble within a narrow band, although many economists, including Andrei Illarionov, urged the government to abandon its support of the ruble. On 12 May 1998, coal miners went on strike over unpaid wages, blocking the Trans-Siberian Railway. By 1 August 1998, there was approximately $12.5 billion in debt owed to Russian workers. On 14 August, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble to the US dollar was still 6.29. In June 1998, despite the bailout, monthly interest payments on Russia's debt rose to a figure 40 percent higher than its monthly tax collections. Additionally, on 15 July 1998, the State Duma, which was at the time dominated by left-wing parties, refused to adopt most of the government's anti-crisis plan, so the government was forced to rely on presidential decrees. On 29 July, Yeltsin interrupted his vacation in Valdai Hills region and flew to Moscow, prompting fears of a Cabinet reshuffle, but he only replaced Federal Security Service Chief Nikolay Kovalyov with Vladimir Putin. At the time, Russia employed a "floating peg" policy toward the ruble, meaning that the Central Bank decided that at any given time the ruble-to-dollar (or RUB/USD) exchange rate would stay within a particular range. If the ruble threatened to devalue outside of that range (or "band"), the Central Bank would intervene by spending foreign reserves to buy rubles. For instance, during the year before the crisis, the Central Bank aimed to maintain a band of 5.3 to 7.1 RUB/USD, meaning that it would buy rubles if the market exchange rate threatened to exceed 7.1 rubles/dollar. Similarly, it would sell rubles if the market exchange rate threatened to drop below 5.3. The inability of the Russian government to implement a coherent set of economic reforms led to a severe erosion in investor confidence and a chain reaction that can be likened to a run on the Central Bank. Investors fled the market by selling rubles and Russian assets (such as securities), which also put downward pressure on the ruble. This forced the Central Bank to spend its foreign reserves to defend Russia's currency, which in turn further eroded investor confidence and undermined the ruble. It is estimated that between 1 October 1997 and 17 August 1998, the Central Bank expended approximately $27 billion of its U.S. dollar reserves to maintain the floating peg. It was later revealed that about $5 billion of the international loans provided by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund were stolen upon the funds' arrival in Russia on the eve of the meltdown. Cri.... Discover the Timothy J Colton Stephen Holmes popular books. Find the top 100 most popular Timothy J Colton Stephen Holmes books.