Douglas W Hubbard Richard Seiersen Popular Books
Douglas W Hubbard Richard Seiersen Biography & Facts
A risk matrix is a matrix that is used during risk assessment to define the level of risk by considering the category of likelihood (often confused with one of its possible quantitative metrics, i.e. the probability) against the category of consequence severity. This is a simple mechanism to increase visibility of risks and assist management decision making. Definitions Risk is the lack of certainty about the outcome of making a particular choice. Statistically, the level of downside risk can be calculated as the product of the probability that harm occurs (e.g., that an accident happens) multiplied by the severity of that harm (i.e., the average amount of harm or more conservatively the maximum credible amount of harm). In practice, the risk matrix is a useful approach where either the probability or the harm severity cannot be estimated with accuracy and precision. Although standard risk matrices exist in certain contexts (e.g. US DoD, NASA, ISO), individual projects and organizations may need to create their own or tailor an existing risk matrix. For example, the harm severity can be categorized as: Catastrophic: death or permanent total disability, significant irreversible environmental impact, total loss of equipment Critical: accident level injury resulting in hospitalization, permanent partial disability, significant reversible environmental impact, damage to equipment Marginal: injury causing lost workdays, reversible moderate environmental impact, minor accident damage level Minor: injury not causing lost workdays, minimal environmental impact, damage less than a minor accident level The likelihood of harm occurring might be categorized as 'certain', 'likely', 'possible', 'unlikely' and 'rare'. However it must be considered that very low likelihood may not be very reliable. The resulting risk matrix could be: The company or organization then would calculate what levels of risk they can take with different events. This would be done by weighing the risk of an event occurring against the cost to implement safety and the benefit gained from it. The following is an example matrix of possible personal injuries, with particular accidents allocated to appropriate cells within the matrix: The risk matrix is approximate and can often be challenged. For example, the likelihood of death in an aircraft crash is about 1:11 million but death by motor vehicle is 1:5000, but nobody usually survives a plane crash, so it is far more catastrophic. Development On January 30 1978, a new version of US Department of Defense Instruction 6055.1 ("Department of Defense Occupational Safety and Health Program") was released. It is said to have been an important step towards the development of the risk matrix. In August 1978, business textbook author David E Hussey defined an investment "risk matrix" with risk on one axis, and profitability on the other. The values on the risk axis were determined by first determining risk impact and risk probability values in a manner identical to completing a 7 x 7 version of the modern risk matrix. A 5 x 4 version of the risk matrix was defined by the US Department of Defense on March 30 1984, in "MIL-STD-882B System Safety Program Requirements". The risk matrix was in use by the acquisition reengineering team at the US Air Force Electronic Systems Center in 1995. Huihui Ni, An Chen and Ning Chen proposed some refinements of the approach in 2010. In 2019, the three most popular forms of the matrix were: a 3x3 risk matrix (OHSAS 18001) a 5x5 risk matrix (MIL-STD-882B) a 4x4 risk matrix (AS/NZS 4360 2004) Other standards are also in use. Problems In his article 'What's Wrong with Risk Matrices?', Tony Cox argues that risk matrices experience several problematic mathematical features making it harder to assess risks. These are: Poor resolution. Typical risk matrices can correctly and unambiguously compare only a small fraction (e.g., less than 10%) of randomly selected pairs of hazards. They can assign identical ratings to quantitatively very different risks ("range compression"). Errors. Risk matrices can mistakenly assign higher qualitative ratings to quantitatively smaller risks. For risks with negatively correlated frequencies and severities, they can be "worse than useless," leading to worse-than-random decisions. Suboptimal resource allocation. Effective allocation of resources to risk-reducing countermeasures cannot be based on the categories provided by risk matrices. Ambiguous inputs and outputs. Categorizations of severity cannot be made objectively for uncertain consequences. Inputs to risk matrices (e.g., frequency and severity categorizations) and resulting outputs (i.e., risk ratings) require subjective interpretation, and different users may obtain opposite ratings of the same quantitative risks. These limitations suggest that risk matrices should be used with caution, and only with careful explanations of embedded judgments. Thomas, Bratvold, and Bickel demonstrate that risk matrices produce arbitrary risk rankings. Rankings depend upon the design of the risk matrix itself, such as how large the bins are and whether or not one uses an increasing or decreasing scale. In other words, changing the scale can change the answer. An additional problem is the imprecision used on the categories of likelihood. For example; 'certain', 'likely', 'possible', 'unlikely' and 'rare' are not hierarchically related. A better choice might be obtained through use of the same base term, such as 'extremely common', 'very common', 'fairly common', 'less common', 'very uncommon', 'extremely uncommon' or a similar hierarchy on a base "frequency" term. Another common problem is to assign rank indices to the matrix axes and multiply the indices to get a "risk score". While this seems intuitive, it results in an uneven distribution. Cybersecurity Douglas W. Hubbard and Richard Seiersen take the general research from Cox, Thomas, Bratvold, and Bickel, and provide specific discussion in the realm of cybersecurity risk. They point out that since 61% of cybersecurity professionals use some form of risk matrix, this can be a serious problem. Hubbard and Seiersen consider these problems in the context of other measured human errors and conclude that "The errors of the experts are simply further exacerbated by the additional errors introduced by the scales and matrices themselves. We agree with the solution proposed by Thomas et al. There is no need for cybersecurity (or other areas of risk analysis that also use risk matrices) to reinvent well-established quantitative methods used in many equally complex problems." References. Discover the Douglas W Hubbard Richard Seiersen popular books. Find the top 100 most popular Douglas W Hubbard Richard Seiersen books.
Best Seller Douglas W Hubbard Richard Seiersen Books of 2024
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His Girl Next Door
Khardine GrayFrom USA Today Bestselling author Khardine Gray comes a sizzling hot single dad romance you won't want to miss. No strings attached fun with the ubergorgeous single d...
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Teased by Fire
Molly O'HareFrom USA Today bestselling author Molly O’Hare comes an enemiestolovers, older brother’s best friend, romantic comedy with a curvy, antisocial, supernaturalobsessed, allyearround h...
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Noxious
Lexy TimmsStop setting yourself on fire to keep someone else warm. Brady and Levi have been together since high school, since before he became famous and started thinking only about himself....
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The Icing on the Cake
Linda SeedShe’s a baker without a kitchen. He’s got a double oven to spare. It’s a recipe for success, until his mother starts stirring up trouble … Cassie Jordan has a sweet dream to open a...
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Silver Santa
Lacey SilksTrapped together on Christmas, their unintended onenight stand becomes a lifechanging encounter amidst the snow. Laura Young's professional role as a security guard at the Sil...
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Pride and Prejudice
Jane AustenAn Apple Books Classic edition. Jane Austen’s beloved classic opens with this witty and very memorable line: “It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a single man in possessio...
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Eternal
W.J. MayShe will fight for what is hers. When the king is murdered, Katerina, his only daughter, must flee for her life. She finds herself on a strange and dangerous path. Alone for the fi...
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School of Potential
W.J. MayUSA Today Bestselling author, W.J. May brings you a continuation of the international bestselling series, The Chronicles of Kerrigan! Come back and enjoy the famous characters, or ...
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The Art of War
Sun TzuAn Apple Books Classic edition. It’s believed that Sun Tzu wrote this Chinese military primer during the 5th century BChundreds of years before the Bible. The book’s 13 chapters ex...
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The Honeymoon Homicide
J. R. Mathis & Susan MathisEnjoy this SmallTown Murder Mystery Featuring A Unique Sleuthing Couple I'm Father Tom Greer, a Catholic Priest in a smalltown parish who never expected this . . . When I came...
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Death at Hazel House
Betty Rowlands‘Riveting, can't put it down! I love this story… a wonderfully twisted tale of a crime that has more twists than I thought possible... fantastic.’ Goodreads Reviewer, 5 stars ...
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Just Me
Lexy TimmsWe all need somewhere where we feel safe… After leaving her abusive husband, Katherine Marshall is out on her own for the first time. She's hopped from city to city to avoid t...
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The Target
Lexy TimmsWhen you seek revenge be sure to dig two graves… Revenge was the only thing I had going for me. It kept me awake at night and drove me into desperate situations in dive bars across...
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The Count of Monte Cristo
Alexandre DumasAn Apple Books Classic edition. Alexandre Dumas’ classic paints a portrait of Edmond Dantès, a dark and calculating man who is willing to wait years to exact his perfect plan for r...
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A Green Kind of Witch
Sierra CrossCinderella crossed with Mean Girls.   That's what Hazel's daily existence feels like. Born to a family of elegant yet shallow Beige Witches, seventeen y...
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Inception of Gold
Lexy TimmsThings are not as bad as they seem. They are worse. Being the personal assistant to a narcissistic actress who just happens to own the key to my family's undoing isn't ex...
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All Fired Up
Kathryn ShayCaptain Jarek Zenko, a war veteran and firefighter, meets Lacey Roth at a bar one night. They don’t share their real identities, even when they retreat to a hotel. When they meet t...
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The Scarlet Letter
Nathaniel HawthorneAn Apple Books Classic edition. Hester Prynne lives in infamy. After committing adultery and bearing a child with a man whose name she refuses to divulge, the heroine of Nathaniel ...
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The Three Little Pigs
Mark LeskyClassic fairy tales, legends and folk stories in short version without violence retold with lovely illustrations in simple language. Perfect for reading aloud to small chi...
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Dark Psychology and Manipulation
Margaret MorrisonTHE MENTAL MANIPULATOR WILL NO LONGER KEEP SECRETS FROM YOU! Are you fed up with the wool being pulled over your eyes?Are you prepared to stand up to those who believe they can man...
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Awaken Me
Jenna JacobHe was more than a ghost haunting my dreams…he was real. By day, I’m Julianna Garrett …a prim, proper accountant. By night, I’m tormented by dreams of an alpha, ambereyed Adonis wh...
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A Bookshop to Die For
M.P. BlackDitching her fiancé at the altar, Alice Hartford bolts to her childhood hometown to reconnect with the last, happy remnant of her past: her mom's old bookstore. But the bookst...
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Never Enough
Lexy TimmsBe good enough never is... Anthony Accardi is a man on a mission: make his father's watch company a success while bringing in millions of dollars. To do that, he needs an assi...
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Get Lucky
Lila MonroeFall for the hot and hilarious romcom spin on 'The Hangover', perfect for fans of Tessa Bailey, Ali Hazelwood, and Emily Henry! What happens when you wake up in a hotel s...
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Dream Psychology
Sigmund FreudAn Apple Books Classic edition. Written by the founding father of psychoanalysis, Sigmund Freud’s 1899 book is the definitive text on learning to interpret dreams. Freud’s groundbr...
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Wuthering Heights
Emily BrontëAn Apple Books Classic edition. If you’ve only ever seen Wuthering Heights on screen, you may have an image of Catherine and Heathcliff as the ultimate starcrossed lovers. But that...
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Good Guy
Kate MeaderHe's a Special Forces veteran making his pro hockey debut. She's a dogged sports reporter determined to get a scoop. She's also his best friend's widow . . . Fa...
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Assisting the Bosshole
Kristin MacQueenNo hot water? Check Missed the train? Check Broke my heel? Check Dropped my coffee? Check My first day of my new job can’t possibly go worse, right? Wrong. When I meet Parker Scott...
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Think and Grow Rich
Greg Habstritt & Napoleon HillThink and Grow Rich is one of the most popular success book of alltime, having sold more than 60 million copies since it was first published more than 70...
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Holy Bible
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day SaintsThe 2013 edition of the Holy Bible contains all of the study aids contained in the 1979 edition and includes revisions to the study aids, several new photos, updated maps, and adju...
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The Seduction Series Boxset
Roxy Sloane“Sensual, thrilling and wild!”   Discover the bestselling series in one collection: THE SEDUCTION, THE BARGAIN, and THE INVITATION. Perfect for fans of Ana Huang, Sierra S...
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Salvation
Meghan O'FlynnIf you like mouthy detectives, serial killers, and suspenseful mysteries that don't quit, this chilling and actionpacked hardboiled detective series has you covered! Try this ...
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Caught Up with the Captain
Kait NolanCan a retired naval commander and the love he left behind overcome a 34yearold secret to find their way to a second chance? Captain Mitchell Greyson is a man who believes in duty. ...
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Nothing to Hide
Scarlett FinnPrize of a lifetime: travel the world with a celebrity billionaire. Come to LA with us, Roxie… It will be so much fun! We have tickets for a latenight talk show! What could possibl...
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Hot Off the Press
Lexy Timms"This is what really happened… reported by a free press, for a free people…" Wes Shaw leads a secret double life. As the secret owner of a billion dollar newspap...
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Man In The Water
Jon HillAn attempted murder. A missing spouse. And an international conspiracy that could change the world. Jack Green has always been skeptical of socalled facts. Though he's forced ...
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Whiskey Girl
Melissa BelleThey'll do anything for each other…except commit. Logan Wild isn’t just the hottest broncriding cowboy in Texas. He’s also my best friendwith benefits. And that’s all we’ll ev...
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Little Women
Louisa May AlcottAn Apple Books Classic edition. Meet the Marches! Louisa May Alcott’s classic introduces us to four unforgettable sisters: beautiful Meg, tomboyish Jo, delicate Beth, and Amy, the ...
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Coffee Girl
Sophie SinclairMackenzie "Kiki" Forbes finds herself in a pickle. Either become her snarky sister's nanny, or move halfway across the country to work as assistanttothestylist of a ...
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Finding Cinderella
Colleen Hoover#1 New York Times bestselling author of It Starts with Us and It Ends With Us writes a free novella about the search for happily ever after. A chance encounter in the dark leads ei...
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The Holy Bible - King James Version
King JamesHoly Bible King James Version Few Sample Paragraphs from The Holy Bible eBook, Genesis (OT) 1 Gen. 1 IN the beginning God created the heaven and the earth. 2 And the earth was with...
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Masters of Restraint
Ines JohnsonMy new boss is good at giving orders. But his latest demand is NSFW. Especially when his two business partners want in on our deal. My new boss My boss’s boss Their investor &#...
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Hard Love
Peyton BanksHe was football royalty. Legendary quarterback. A champion.  Reiner Strickland had led his team to three national championships and playing a knight in shining armor was a...
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Dracula
Bram StokerAn Apple Books Classic edition. Few characters have seized readers’ imaginations quite like Count Dracula of Transylvania, the hero of Bram Stoker’s classic. The 1897 novel put vam...
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Once Upon A One-Night Stand
Zoey LockeAt first sight, there was electrifying chemistry.  So why not go for it? After all, Lynx Grove, the city's most eligible bachelor, wants to claim her, at least for th...
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Escape, A New Life
David J AntocciTo save herself, she had to lose everything. Trapped in a tropical paradise with no memory of how she got there, Abby is thrust into a fight for her life. Hunted by a madman, and c...
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Bewitching a Highlander
Roma CordonDefying all for the love of a bewitching lass. Breena MacRae, a healer from Skye with a touch of witchery in her blood, embarks on a dangerous search for her missing father. She ar...
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The Cupcake Cottage
Jean OramNHL player Maverick Blades could fall in love with anyone... But he had to fall for a woman who falls under the Bro Code as untouchablehis best friend’s beautiful ex, DaisyMae Ray....
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Become A Better Version of Yourself
Ben LeightonThis ebook contains golden nuggets on how to motivate, inspire and improve your current situation. It encompasses the holistic view of self improvement from mental& emotion...
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Christmas in Sweetbriar Cove
Melody GraceCelebrate the holidays in Sweetbriar Cove with this festive romance collection, containing two sizzling smalltown holiday stories perfect for fans of Tessa Bailey, Sophie Kinsella...